A Probability Model of Knowledge

The appropriate place to begin a discussion of Information-Age measures is with a discussion of information and how it affects military operations. Information has always been an integral part of military operations, from the earliest days of organized combat to today’s modern armies. Commanders have always devoted considerable resources to improving intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance techniques while attempting to protect information about their own forces from the enemy through concealment and deception. The assumption is that the more a commander knows about the situation on the battlefield—especially what he knows about the enemy forces—the better he is able to employ his forces and therefore prevail.1 Indeed, there are several historical examples that bear this out. In discussing cyberwar, for example, Arquilla and Ronfeldt describe how 12th-century Mongols used information to prevail against superior armies.